Official statistics show modest growth in the three months to February 2026, with strong January performance offsetting earlier weaknesses.
The Office for National Statistics has reported a 0.7% increase in retail sales volumes for the three-month period ending February 2026, marking a recovery driven by non-store retailers and strong non-food store performance.
The Numbers Behind the Growth
According to ONS data, the December 2025 to February 2026 period showed improvement compared with the previous three months, primarily due to non-store retail bouncing back after a weaker November 2025. Online jewellers continued their strong sales momentum into January 2026, contributing to the overall non-store retail strength.
January 2026 proved above all buoyant, with retail sales volumes jumping 1.8% – the largest monthly increase recorded since May 2024. This followed a more modest 0.4% growth in December 2025, suggesting consumer confidence began building through the winter months.
The latest figures represent a turnaround from Quarter 4 2025, when retail sales volumes fell 0.3% compared with Quarter 3. However, the three months to January 2026 had already shown signs of recovery with a 0.1% rise versus the prior period.
Broader Economic Context
Annual volumes for 2025 increased by 1.3%, marking the second consecutive yearly rise after declines in both 2022 and 2023. Yet retail volumes remain below pre-2019 pandemic levels, according to the ONS data.
PwC commentary on the statistics highlighted several factors affecting retail performance, including later Christmas shopping patterns, higher grocery inflation pushing consumers towards essential purchases, and wet weather reducing footfall on high streets across the country.
The automotive fuel sector contributed to the three-month growth, though supermarkets continue facing pressures from ongoing inflation affecting grocery spending patterns.
What the Data Reveals
Non-food stores showed particular strength during January 2026, helping to offset seasonal variations and weather-related challenges that affected physical retail locations. The performance suggests consumers maintained spending on discretionary items despite broader economic pressures.
Industry analysts described the festive quarter as disappointing due to consumer caution around discretionary spending. But the January surge has offered renewed optimism for retailers, even as volumes remain below historical norms.
The ONS position emphasises the modest recovery signals resilience in the retail sector, with non-store and non-food gains successfully offsetting seasonal weaknesses that typically affect this period.
Source: @ONS
Key Takeaways
- Retail sales volumes rose 0.7% in the three months to February 2026, driven by non-store retail recovery and strong non-food performance
- January 2026 recorded the largest monthly increase (1.8%) since May 2024, following weaker autumn trading
- Annual 2025 volumes grew 1.3%, the second consecutive yearly rise, though still below pre-pandemic levels
What This Means for Kent Residents
Kent households may benefit from the stronger performance in non-food and online retail sectors, which could support local high street recovery in key towns like Canterbury and Maidstone. Local non-food stores and e-commerce businesses may boost employment opportunities in retail sectors, though supermarkets continue facing pressure from inflation affecting grocery budgets. Residents should monitor local fuel and grocery prices carefully, as automotive fuel contributed to the three-month growth, while the South East Local Enterprise Partnership suggests the retail recovery could strengthen employment prospects across the county’s shopping centres and online retail operations.